Natural disasters and extreme weather events

Picture of a firefighter surrounded by smoke during a forest fire

Source: Richard Woehrl - stock.adobe.com

Natural disasters are violent and unusual natural events that cause devastating damage. While disasters of natural origin (such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions) are relatively insignificant in Germany [1], extreme weather events caused by climate change are occurring increasingly often, and in some cases with catastrophic effects [2; 3]. These particularly include periods of heat and drought, storms, and heavy and/or continuous rainfall, which in winter may take the form of snow. The possible consequences of these extreme weather events include high water levels and flooding, tidal surges, landslides, rockfalls, avalanches and wildfires. Extreme weather events in Germany cause average annual insured losses of 3.4 billion euros [4]. Europe is the continent with the fastest rate of warming. The temperature rise in Europe over the last 40 years has been around twice the global average [5]. The World Economic Forum forecasts that the consequences of extreme weather events and rising sea levels will cause 14.5 million deaths worldwide by 2050, and additional costs to healthcare systems of 1.1 trillion US dollars [6].

Since the first decades of weather records (1881-1910), climate change has already led to an increase of around 2 °C in the annual average air temperature in Germany [7]. The pace of the temperature rise has increased significantly [8], and the last two decades have seen a series of record years for heat: nine of the ten warmest years were recorded since 2000 [9]. In 2022, 4,500 people died in Germany as a result of high ambient temperatures; in 2018, which saw a particularly hot summer, the figure was 8,700 [10]. The north-east of the country and the Rhine-Main region, in particular, also suffer longer dry periods/droughts [2; 11]. This increases the likelihood of wildfires [12]. A recent report by the European Environment Agency states that heat is the greatest and most urgent climate risk to human health. Europe is warming particularly rapidly compared to the rest of the world, and climate risks are far outpacing society’s measures to safeguard against them [13].

Since the atmosphere can absorb around 7% more moisture with every 1 °C increase in temperature, global warming leads to higher precipitation levels [14]: since records began, precipitation in Germany has increased only slightly overall, but with major variation [15]. No clear trend for heavy rainfall events is evident as yet for Germany from 2009 onwards from the data of "Deutscher Wetterdienst" (DWD; German Weather Service) [16]. However, convective precipitation makes heavy rainfall events more likely in our temperate latitudes [14; 17].


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Dipl.-Psych. Angelika Hauke

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Dipl.-Übers. Ina Neitzner

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